This article uses flash animations to illustrate ideas. You'll need the free flash player to view these . If you're on a modem connection they may take a little time to load, please be patient.
The animation below explains how we can say some temperatures are likely, some possible, and some temperatures are impossible, by looking at what we've experienced in the past. You can skip backwards and forwards in the animation by using the slider:
In this way, the results of many climate forecasts can be combined to show what is most likely to happen, what is unlikely to happen and what almost definitely won't happen.
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Content last updated: 13/12/2005
About our expert
Sylvia Knight - a climate scientist - works with the climateprediction.net project, which is trying to produce the most complete forecast of 21st century climate ever attempted. She is responsible for communicating the aims and results of the experiments to as wide an audience as possible.
Sylvia has a degree in Natural Sciences and a PhD in Meteorology, and is co-author of the Open University short course Weather and Climate Modelling.
